One of the most important seasons in baseball history starts March 27. Dramatic? Maybe a little. But let’s face it, despite increases in viewership and overall “fan engagement” (according to the Commissioner) over the past two seasons (allegedly due to major rule changes) the on-field product the past several seasons has been… increasingly harder to watch. As Opening Day gets underway everyone should drive to their local Lids to buy a Giants cap.
At the Major League level, the game of baseball should be played with a crisp brand. Monster flyballs routinely caught. One-hop seeds in the hole routinely picked and thrown across the diamond by a shortstop with ease. Balls put in play with runners on 3rd base and less than two outs to drive in runs – all examples of that crispness. Despite MLB employing the best athletes it ever has, that clean brand of the game has dramatically suffered.
Take a step back and recall the World Series viewing experience last season. It’s easy to point to the disastrous inning the Yankees had in game 5. However, this was a microcosm of their series and the style of play Major League teams currently execute across the board. Catch play, baserunning, situational hitting, and throwing strikes all de-emphasized in favor of velocities, launch angles, homers, strikeouts, and 60-yard dash times. If the Giants experience success this season, that sentiment should start to shift.
Enter Buster Posey
When the Giants named Buster Posey as Farhan Zaidi’s replacement as President of Baseball Operations one day after the 2024 regular season ended, it went against the grain of the current trend. An ownership group put a baseball person in a decision-making position instead of a data nerd. Not just any baseball person. A three-time World Series winning, hall of fame catcher with an analytical, calculated mind. A person that possesses a natural ability to articulate and lead. He’s also a person who cares deeply about how the game gets played. Posey understands that learning the nuances of the game are just as important as the physical ability it takes to play it. His instincts made him great and is sure to be something he uses to evaluate the incoming talent.
For baseball traditionalists, what person could better be suited to trend baseball away from the three-outcome game (HR, BB, K) than Posey? It’s a great pick. Here’s the issue – what if the Giants stink or are even just average again over the next couple seasons? The Giants have won between 79 and 81 games the last three years following their wild 107-win one-off in 2021 (with Posey as the catcher). They haven’t been terrible; they just haven’t been good.
Data Nerds Lining Up
If the Giants win 80 games again over the next couple seasons, the data nerds will be out in droves. The people creating the current state of the game will line up to say, “see, we told you the game you’re trying to play is outdated.” It won’t just be a Giants issue. It’ll be a game of baseball issue. We’ll continue to see fundamental plays and knowledge of the game devalued in favor of starters that can pitch a maximum of 5 innings and guys that will pop 20 homers while hitting .225. But hey, they’re pretty toolsy!
This is why the beginning of the Buster Posey regime in San Francisco is so important. It is going to decide the fate of what the game looks like over the next decade. If the Giants are successful, we’ll start to see a trend that incorporates both showcasing a player’s ceiling, while still giving us a floor of a crisp game. As a “fan” of the game, you want to be most entertained. Dumbing down the rules of the game so the best athletes have a chance to play and making games shorter doesn’t necessarily make it more entertaining. Watching teams play clean, fundamental baseball, while sprinkling in the 450-foot homer is the ideal product.
A Giant Success?
Now, will the Posey Giants be successful? Who knows, but don’t be shocked if they are. If Spring Training provides any template as to the identity they want to have this year, it’s exactly what’s talked about above. The Giants won the Cactus League this spring. Obviously, the games don’t count. Sometimes it’s just a case of “our minor league roster fillers are better than your minor league roster fillers.” But people close to the team have stated the record is a product of the emphasis being put on fundamentals. Throwing strikes, playing defense, moving runners up on offense and running the bases well.
As an economics major, I can tell you that sometimes you can maximize your value of something by doing it first. Zigging when others are zagging, so to speak. This can 100 percent be applied to sports. Look at the Patriots over the last 20 years. Bill Belichick switched their base defense (3-4 to 4-3 and vice versa) based on what positions were being under/over valued in free agency. When teams copy what is currently successful, doing the opposite becomes cost efficient.
The Giants have an opportunity to buck a trend and don’t need to look far for examples of players that fit the mold. Currently, Major League teams want the ultimate athlete. Power and speed are paramount. If you can hit the ball out of the yard, throw hard, and cover the most ground on the field, you’re coveted in the current style of game. Teams must pay a lot of money for these attributes because of this.
Look No Further Than the Ace
Logan Webb is the cornerstone piece of the Giants rotation. He generally throws 92-94mph with a sinker that has great movement. He can throw multiple pitches for strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone. If he hit free agency today, teams would obviously want him because he’s shown he can have success at the Major League level. But what if he was coming out of the draft today? Would he throw hard enough? Would his spin rate be high enough on his breaking ball? He’s probably a top 10 starter in the league and there’s no guarantee he’d even be a 1st round pick.
Before you say, “well, that is a scouting issue”, maybe partially. But I’ve talked to numerous scouts that have stated there is not a single scout in the draft room with their organization when the draft occurs. That is bonkers! Talent evaluators aren’t even present to select the talent your organization is bringing in. That seems… off.
Webb was also the only pitcher in the league that threw over 200 innings in both 2023 and 2024. When teams covet 5 inning starts because their bullpens are great, there is value in having a rotation of starters that can give you 6-7 innings. Even if they’re giving up 3 or 4 runs. The bullpen is kept fresh for the postseason.
The overlooked aspect of the equation is the cost of teaching a player to play the game well. A player that can drive in runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs has value. Even if he only hits 15 home runs with the longest one being a 375-foot wall scraper. Especially because you won’t have to pay as much for a player who is “best” in this category.
Analytics
You might think “this sounds great, but the data people still know better.” Notice the word “analytics” when referring to this newer style of play is nowhere to be found in this article. “Analytics” is not some new thing in baseball that an Ivy League graduate (some might say Jonah Hill?) introduced to the game a couple decades ago. Baseball has been using them since the 1800’s. They just weren’t called the same thing. “Analytics” is a fancy word for “stats” that has allowed people that never played baseball to control draft rooms, hand out $100 million contracts, and change the way the game is played. The stats that are used now are just different than the stats you grew up with. So don’t let them tell you you’re too stupid to understand the game you’ve been watching since you were 4 years old.
This is not to say there hasn’t been anything positive contributed to the game because of these “advanced” stats. They are here to stay and can positively impact the game. It is merely to say baseball people need to take back control of the game. The emphasis needs to go away from changing rules and taking out variables (no DH, 3 batter limit, limited pick-off moves, etc.) that allow the data nerds to control it. These rules put the game in more of a vacuum, which is exactly what someone who is building a predictive model wants. They don’t want the nuance that is supposed to be inherent in playing any sport, but especially baseball, to exist.
Weight on Posey
Fair or not, the person that the direction of the game depends on is Buster Posey. If the Giants have a 90-win season with a mid-level payroll that meshes some household names with incoming prospects that are fundamentally sound baseball players, we will see a shift in how the game is played around the league. If not, we may get another era of the same boring, calculated, data-driven game. It will still be acceptable to hit .215 with 180 strikeouts if you hit 20 home runs. It will still be acceptable to walk a guy every inning if you throw 98mph. Nobody should want this.
I’ve been a lifelong Giants fan, but this year, you should be one too.
